A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization

Peter I. Frazier

article2018arXiv2,481 citations

Presents a comprehensive guide to optimizing computationally expensive objective functions with Bayesian optimization, covering core acquisition functions, advanced multi-fidelity settings, and a decision-theoretic generalization of expected improvement for noisy evaluations.

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The article addresses the challenge of optimizing expensive black-box objective functions that require minutes or hours per evaluation, lack derivatives, and have no known structure to exploit. Such problems arise in hyperparameter tuning for machine learning models, engineering system design, materials discovery, and laboratory experiments, where only a few hundred evaluations are feasible.

The tutorial sets out to explain how Bayesian optimization solves these problems, detail its core components, and extend the approach to more complex settings. It covers Gaussian process regression for building a probabilistic surrogate model, three main acquisition functions for choosing evaluation points, and a range of advanced variants.

The method begins with an initial set of evaluations, fits a Gaussian process surrogate that quantifies uncertainty, and then repeatedly selects the next point by maximizing an acquisition function. Expected improvement is the most common choice in the basic noise-free case because it balances predicted performance against uncertainty. Knowledge gradient, entropy search, and predictive entropy search provide stronger performance when evaluations are noisy or when value arises from improving beliefs across the entire domain rather than only at the sampled point.

Key extensions allow parallel evaluations, multi-fidelity and multi-information-source queries, expensive constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task objectives, and derivative observations. In these exotic settings, knowledge gradient and entropy-based methods often outperform expected improvement because they account for how a measurement updates beliefs over the full feasible region.

These techniques matter because they enable reliable global optimization of costly functions that defeat gradient-based or local search methods, reducing the number of evaluations needed and supporting high-stakes decisions in science and engineering. Software packages such as GPyOpt, Spearmint, and Cornell MOE make the methods accessible.

Next steps include developing finite-time performance guarantees, scaling methods to higher dimensions through structure discovery, creating new statistical models for specific applications, and applying the framework to chemistry, materials design, and drug discovery. Limitations include the assumption of moderate input dimensions (typically under 20), the computational cost of optimizing acquisition functions in some variants, and the lack of fully multi-step optimal policies for general problems; readers should verify that problem characteristics match the method's assumptions before deployment.

arXiv: 1807.02811
Cover for A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization

Abstract

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

Table of Contents

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Overview of BayesOpt
  • 3 Gaussian Process (GP) Regression
  • 3.1 Choosing a Mean Function and Kernel
  • 3.2 Choosing Hyperparameters
  • 4 Acquisition Functions
  • 4.1 Expected Improvement
  • 4.2 Knowledge Gradient
  • 4.3 Entropy Search and Predictive Entropy Search
  • 4.4 Multi-Step Optimal Acquisition Functions
  • 5 Exotic Bayesian Optimization
  • 6 Software
  • 7 Conclusion and Research Directions
  • References

Knowls

  1. Knowl 1 — Basic Sequential Bayesian Optimization Algorithm

    algorithm

    Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) is an iterative framework for global optimization of expensive, derivative-free black-box functions f:AoRf: A o \mathbb{R} over a domain ARdA \subseteq \mathbb{R}^d. It maintains a Gaussian process surrogate model over ff and uses an acquisition function to determine optimal sampling locations under a budget of NN evaluations.

    Input: Objective function ff, feasible domain AA, initial sample budget n0n_0, total evaluation budget NN, prior Gaussian process (μ0,Σ0)(\mu_0, \Sigma_0), acquisition function αn(x)\alpha_n(x)
    Output: Recommended solution xAx^* \in A
    Place Gaussian process prior (μ0,Σ0)(\mu_0, \Sigma_0) on ff
    Evaluate ff at n0n_0 initial points chosen according to a space-filling design (e.g., uniform random sampling in AA)
    Set n=n0n = n_0
    while nNn \le N do
        Update Gaussian process posterior mean μn(x)\mu_n(x) and variance σn2(x)\sigma_n^2(x) using all accumulated evaluations {(xi,yi)}i=1n\{(x_i, y_i)\}_{i=1}^n
        Find xnargmaxxAαn(x)x_n \in \arg\max_{x \in A} \alpha_n(x) by maximizing the acquisition function computed under the current posterior
        Evaluate yn=f(xn)y_n = f(x_n)
        n=n+1n = n + 1
    end while
    Return x=argmaxx{x1,,xN}f(x)x^* = \arg\max_{x \in \{x_1, \dots, x_N\}} f(x) or x=argmaxxAμN(x)x^* = \arg\max_{x \in A} \mu_N(x)

    The algorithm updates its uncertainty after every evaluation, balancing the exploration of uncertain regions with the exploitation of high predicted performance.

  2. Knowl 2 — Gaussian Process Posterior Inference for Noise-Free Evaluations

    equation

    Let f:RdRf: \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R} be modeled as a Gaussian process with prior mean function μ0:RdR\mu_0: \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R} and positive semi-definite covariance kernel Σ0:Rd×RdR\Sigma_0: \mathbb{R}^d \times \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}. Given a sequence of nn noise-free observations f(x1:n)=[f(x1),,f(xn)]Tf(x_{1:n}) = [f(x_1), \dots, f(x_n)]^T at input locations x1:n=[x1,,xn]x_{1:n} = [x_1, \dots, x_n], the posterior distribution of the function value f(x)f(x) at an unobserved point xRdx \in \mathbb{R}^d is normally distributed:

    f(x)f(x1:n)N(μn(x),σn2(x))f(x) \mid f(x_{1:n}) \sim \mathcal{N}\left(\mu_n(x), \sigma_n^2(x)\right)

    where the posterior mean μn(x)\mu_n(x) and posterior variance σn2(x)\sigma_n^2(x) are given analytically by:

    μn(x)=Σ0(x,x1:n)Σ0(x1:n,x1:n)1(f(x1:n)μ0(x1:n))+μ0(x)\mu_n(x) = \Sigma_0(x, x_{1:n}) \Sigma_0(x_{1:n}, x_{1:n})^{-1} (f(x_{1:n}) - \mu_0(x_{1:n})) + \mu_0(x)

    σn2(x)=Σ0(x,x)Σ0(x,x1:n)Σ0(x1:n,x1:n)1Σ0(x1:n,x)\sigma_n^2(x) = \Sigma_0(x, x) - \Sigma_0(x, x_{1:n}) \Sigma_0(x_{1:n}, x_{1:n})^{-1} \Sigma_0(x_{1:n}, x)

    Here, Σ0(x,x1:n)\Sigma_0(x, x_{1:n}) is the 1×n1 \times n vector with entries Σ0(x,xi)\Sigma_0(x, x_i), Σ0(x1:n,x1:n)\Sigma_0(x_{1:n}, x_{1:n}) is the n×nn \times n covariance matrix with entries [Σ0(x1:n,x1:n)]i,j=Σ0(xi,xj)[\Sigma_0(x_{1:n}, x_{1:n})]_{i,j} = \Sigma_0(x_i, x_j), and Σ0(x1:n,x)=Σ0(x,x1:n)T\Sigma_0(x_{1:n}, x) = \Sigma_0(x, x_{1:n})^T.

  3. Knowl 3 — Expected Improvement Acquisition Function and Analytic Formula

    equation

    For noise-free evaluations of an objective function ff, let fn=maxmnf(xm)f_n^* = \max_{m \le n} f(x_m) denote the maximum function value observed across the first nn sample points. The Expected Improvement (EI) acquisition function measures the expected increase over the incumbent maximum achieved by sampling at a new location xx:

    EIn(x):=En[[f(x)fn]+]\text{EI}_n(x) := \mathbb{E}_n\left[[f(x) - f_n^*]^+\right]

    where [a]+=max(a,0)[a]^+ = \max(a, 0) and En[]=E[x1:n,f(x1:n)]\mathbb{E}_n[\cdot] = \mathbb{E}[\cdot \mid x_{1:n}, f(x_{1:n})]. Under the Gaussian process posterior distribution f(x)x1:n,f(x1:n)N(μn(x),σn2(x))f(x) \mid x_{1:n}, f(x_{1:n}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_n(x), \sigma_n^2(x)), this expectation integrates analytically in closed form to:

    ight) - |\Delta_n(x)| \Phi\left(\frac{\Delta_n(x)}{\sigma_n(x)} ight)$$ where $\Delta_n(x) := \mu_n(x) - f_n^*$ represents the expected difference in quality between $x$ and the previous best observation, $\phi(\cdot)$ is the standard normal probability density function, and $\Phi(\cdot)$ is the standard normal cumulative distribution function.
  4. Knowl 4 — Knowledge Gradient Acquisition Function

    model/method

    The Knowledge Gradient (KG) acquisition function evaluates prospective candidate sample points under the premise that the decision-maker is risk-neutral and can report any point in the domain AA as the final recommendation, choosing the point that maximizes the posterior mean. Let μn:=maxxAμn(x)\mu_n^* := \max_{x' \in A} \mu_n(x') be the maximum of the posterior mean at iteration nn.

    If an additional evaluation is conducted at xn+1=xx_{n+1} = x resulting in observation yn+1y_{n+1}, the posterior mean updates to μn+1()\mu_{n+1}(\cdot), and the maximum expected reward becomes μn+1:=maxxAμn+1(x)\mu_{n+1}^* := \max_{x' \in A} \mu_{n+1}(x'). The Knowledge Gradient is the expected improvement in the maximum posterior mean:

    KGn(x):=En[μn+1μnxn+1=x]\text{KG}_n(x) := \mathbb{E}_n\left[\mu_{n+1}^* - \mu_n^* \mid x_{n+1} = x\right]

    where En[]\mathbb{E}_n[\cdot] is evaluated with respect to the predictive distribution of yn+1N(μn(x),σn2(x))y_{n+1} \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_n(x), \sigma_n^2(x)) (or including measurement noise variance). Unlike Expected Improvement, KG accounts for global changes across the entire posterior mean function induced by sampling at xx, assigning value to evaluations that reveal information even if the observed point itself is not an incumbent optimum.

  5. Knowl 5 — Knowledge Gradient Optimization via Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis

    algorithm

    Because the Knowledge Gradient acquisition function KGn(x)\text{KG}_n(x) cannot generally be written in closed form, its gradient KGn(x)\nabla \text{KG}_n(x) is computed via Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) and the envelope theorem. Differentiating through the expectation yields KGn(x)=En[μn+1xn+1=x]\nabla \text{KG}_n(x) = \mathbb{E}_n[\nabla \mu_{n+1}^* \mid x_{n+1} = x]. By expressing the future observation as yn+1=μn(x)+σn(x)Zy_{n+1} = \mu_n(x) + \sigma_n(x)Z where ZN(0,1)Z \sim \mathcal{N}(0, 1), and finding the maximizing point x^argmaxxμn+1(x;x,μn(x)+σn(x)Z)\hat{x}^* \in \arg\max_{x'} \mu_{n+1}(x'; x, \mu_n(x) + \sigma_n(x)Z), the gradient is obtained by differentiating μn+1(x^;x,μn(x)+σn(x)Z)\mu_{n+1}(\hat{x}^*; x, \mu_n(x) + \sigma_n(x)Z) with respect to xx while holding x^\hat{x}^* fixed. Unbiased gradients are then optimized using multi-start stochastic gradient ascent.

    Input: Number of restarts RR, iterations per restart TT, stepsize scale parameter aa, sample size JJ, feasible domain AA
    Output: Point xx^* approximately maximizing KGn(x)\text{KG}_n(x)
    for r=1r = 1 to RR do
        Initialize x0(r)x_0^{(r)} uniformly at random from AA
        for t=1t = 1 to TT do
            for j=1j = 1 to JJ do
                Sample ZjN(0,1)Z_j \sim \mathcal{N}(0, 1)
                Set yn+1(j)=μn(xt1(r))+σn(xt1(r))Zjy_{n+1}^{(j)} = \mu_n(x_{t-1}^{(r)}) + \sigma_n(x_{t-1}^{(r)}) Z_j
                Compute posterior mean function μn+1(;xt1(r),yn+1(j))\mu_{n+1}(\cdot; x_{t-1}^{(r)}, y_{n+1}^{(j)})
                Find x^jargmaxxAμn+1(x;xt1(r),yn+1(j))\hat{x}_j^* \in \arg\max_{x' \in A} \mu_{n+1}(x'; x_{t-1}^{(r)}, y_{n+1}^{(j)}) using L-BFGS
                Compute gradient G(j)=xμn+1(x^j;x,μn(x)+σn(x)Zj)x=xt1(r)G^{(j)} = \nabla_x \mu_{n+1}(\hat{x}_j^*; x, \mu_n(x) + \sigma_n(x)Z_j) \mid_{x = x_{t-1}^{(r)}}
            end for
            Set stochastic gradient G=1Jj=1JG(j)G = \frac{1}{J} \sum_{j=1}^J G^{(j)}
            Set step size αt=aa+t\alpha_t = \frac{a}{a + t}
            Update iterate xt(r)=xt1(r)+αtGx_t^{(r)} = x_{t-1}^{(r)} + \alpha_t G
        end for
        Estimate KGn(xT(r))\text{KG}_n(x_T^{(r)}) by Monte Carlo simulation over JJ replications
    end for
    Return x=argmaxr=1,,RKGn(xT(r))x^* = \arg\max_{r=1,\dots,R} \text{KG}_n(x_T^{(r)})
  6. Knowl 6 — Entropy Search and Predictive Entropy Search Acquisition Functions

    model/method

    Entropy Search (ES) and Predictive Entropy Search (PES) are information-theoretic acquisition functions that select points to maximize the reduction in differential entropy regarding the location of the global maximizer x=argmaxxAf(x)x^* = \arg\max_{x \in A} f(x). For a continuous probability density p(x)p(x), differential entropy is defined as H(p)=p(x)logp(x)dxH(p) = -\int p(x) \log p(x)\,dx.

    Entropy Search directly defines the information gain at point xx as the expected reduction in the differential entropy of the posterior distribution Pn(x)P_n(x^*):

    ESn(x)=H(Pn(x))Ef(x)[H(Pn(xf(x)))]\text{ES}_n(x) = H(P_n(x^*)) - \mathbb{E}_{f(x)}\left[H(P_n(x^* \mid f(x)))\right]

    Predictive Entropy Search reformulates this quantity via the mutual information identity I(x;f(x))=H(Pn(x))H(Pn(xf(x)))=H(Pn(f(x)))H(Pn(f(x)x))I(x^*; f(x)) = H(P_n(x^*)) - H(P_n(x^* \mid f(x))) = H(P_n(f(x))) - H(P_n(f(x) \mid x^*)), yielding the equivalent formulation:

    PESn(x)=H(Pn(f(x)))Ex[H(Pn(f(x)x))]\text{PES}_n(x) = H(P_n(f(x))) - \mathbb{E}_{x^*}\left[H(P_n(f(x) \mid x^*))\right]

    In PES, the first term H(Pn(f(x)))H(P_n(f(x))) represents the entropy of the one-dimensional Gaussian posterior predictive distribution N(μn(x),σn2(x))\mathcal{N}(\mu_n(x), \sigma_n^2(x)) and is computed in closed form as 12ln(2πeσn2(x))\frac{1}{2}\ln(2\pi e \sigma_n^2(x)). The second term is approximated by drawing samples of xx^* from the GP posterior and applying expectation propagation.

  7. Knowl 7 — Decision-Theoretic Generalization of Expected Improvement to Noisy Evaluations

    model/method

    When function evaluations are contaminated with stochastic noise yn=f(xn)+ϵny_n = f(x_n) + \epsilon_n where ϵnN(0,σϵ2)\epsilon_n \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma_\epsilon^2), the exact function values f(x)f(x) are unobserved, rendering the conventional Expected Improvement definition ill-posed.

    Under the restriction inherent to Expected Improvement—that the reported final recommendation must be one of the evaluated points {x1,,xn}\{x_1, \dots, x_n\}—a risk-neutral decision-maker stops after nn measurements by returning argmaxi=1,,nμn(xi)\arg\max_{i=1,\dots,n} \mu_n(x_i), achieving expected value μn:=maxi=1,,nμn(xi)\mu_n^{**} := \max_{i=1,\dots,n} \mu_n(x_i).

    If one additional noisy sample is gathered at xn+1=xx_{n+1} = x, the expected value of the best evaluated point under the updated posterior distribution becomes μn+1:=maxi=1,,n+1μn+1(xi)\mu_{n+1}^{**} := \max_{i=1,\dots,n+1} \mu_{n+1}(x_i). The decision-theoretically grounded generalization of Expected Improvement for noisy evaluations is the expected increment:

    EInnoisy(x):=En[μn+1μnxn+1=x]\text{EI}_n^{\text{noisy}}(x) := \mathbb{E}_n\left[\mu_{n+1}^{**} - \mu_n^{**} \mid x_{n+1} = x\right]

    Because an evaluation at xn+1x_{n+1} shifts the posterior means μn+1(xi)\mu_{n+1}(x_i) at previously evaluated locations xix_i (ini \le n) via correlation, this formulation explicitly accounts for the revision in estimated values of previously measured points.

  8. Knowl 8 — Parallel Expected Improvement Acquisition Function

    equation

    To select a batch of qq candidate points x(1:q)=(x(1),,x(q))x^{(1:q)} = (x^{(1)}, \dots, x^{(q)}) for simultaneous parallel evaluation, the Parallel Expected Improvement (multipoints EI) acquisition function computes the expected improvement of the maximum value within the proposed batch over the current incumbent best fn=maxmnf(xm)f_n^* = \max_{m \le n} f(x_m):

    EIn(x(1:q)):=En[[maxi=1,,qf(x(i))fn]+]\text{EI}_n(x^{(1:q)}) := \mathbb{E}_n\left[\left[\max_{i=1,\dots,q} f(x^{(i)}) - f_n^*\right]^+\right]

    where En[]\mathbb{E}_n[\cdot] is taken over the joint Gaussian posterior distribution of (f(x(1)),,f(x(q)))(f(x^{(1)}), \dots, f(x^{(q)})). The batch of points is chosen by solving argmaxx(1:q)AqEIn(x(1:q))\arg\max_{x^{(1:q)} \in A^q} \text{EI}_n(x^{(1:q)}). Optimization over this qdq \cdot d-dimensional space is performed using heuristic sequential approximations (such as the Constant Liar heuristic) or multistart stochastic gradient ascent using Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis to sample unbiased stochastic gradients EIn(x(1:q))\nabla \text{EI}_n(x^{(1:q)}).

  9. Knowl 9 — Multi-Fidelity and Multi-Information Source Bayesian Optimization

    model/method

    In multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, the objective function is evaluated through auxiliary information sources f(x,s)f(x, s) indexed by sSs \in S, where xAx \in A is the design parameter, s=0s=0 corresponds to the true target objective f(x,0)f(x, 0), and each source ss incurs a query cost c(s)c(s) with varying bias and noise.

    A single Gaussian process is placed over the joint domain A×SA \times S to model f(x,s)f(x, s). The objective is to maximize f(x,0)f(x, 0) under a total computational cost constraint:

    maxxAf(x,0)subject ton=1Nc(sn)B\max_{x \in A} f(x, 0) \quad \text{subject to} \quad \sum_{n=1}^N c(s_n) \le B

    Because standard Expected Improvement evaluates strictly against observed values of f(x,0)f(x, 0) and assigns EI=0\text{EI} = 0 for any low-fidelity source s0s \ne 0, acquisition functions that evaluate global posterior change—such as Knowledge Gradient (KG) and Predictive Entropy Search (PES)—are used to select joint pairs (xn,sn)(x_n, s_n) that deliver the highest information gain per unit cost.

  10. Knowl 10 — Bayesian Optimization with Random Environmental Conditions and Integrands

    model/method

    Optimization under random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the optimization of continuous integrated responses target problems of the form:

    maxxAf(x,w)p(w)dwormaxxAwf(x,w)p(w)\max_{x \in A} \int f(x, w) p(w)\,dw \quad \text{or} \quad \max_{x \in A} \sum_w f(x, w) p(w)

    where f(x,w)f(x, w) is an expensive black-box function depending on controllable design variables xAx \in A and environmental or task parameters ww, and p(w)p(w) is a known probability distribution or weight function over ww.

    Rather than evaluating the complete integral or full summation at high cost during every iteration, f(x,w)f(x, w) is modeled with a Gaussian process surrogate over the joint domain (x,w)(x, w). Acquisition functions such as the Knowledge Gradient (KG) quantify the expected improvement in the integrated objective maxxμn+1(x,w)p(w)dw\max_{x'} \int \mu_{n+1}(x', w) p(w)\,dw resulting from evaluating f(x,w)f(x, w) at a single chosen pair (xn,wn)(x_n, w_n), significantly reducing the overall evaluation burden.

Coverage note — Omitted the high-level survey of software packages (Section 6) and historical literature review as they represent contextual references rather than standalone methodological contributions.

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Citation

MLA
Frazier, P. I. “A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization”. arXiv, 2018, https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.02811.
APA
Frazier, P. I. (2018). A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.02811
Chicago
Frazier, P. I. 2018. “A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization”. Preprint, ArXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.02811.
Harvard
Frazier, P.I. (2018) “A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization”. arXiv. Available at: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.02811.
Vancouver
1. Frazier PI (2018) A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization. https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.02811

BibTeX

@misc{https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.02811,
  doi = {10.48550/ARXIV.1807.02811},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.02811},
  author = {Frazier, Peter I.},
  keywords = {Machine Learning (stat.ML), Machine Learning (cs.LG), Optimization and Control (math.OC), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Mathematics, FOS: Mathematics},
  title = {A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization},
  publisher = {arXiv},
  year = {2018},
  copyright = {arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license}
}
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