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decision threshold

A decision threshold is a predefined numerical cutoff value used in statistical modeling and machine learning to convert continuous predicted scores or probabilities into discrete categorical decisions. When an algorithm evaluates an input, it generates a continuous metric such as a predicted probability, uncertainty score, or confidence value, and comparing this metric against the threshold determines the final outcome, such as assigning a particular class label or withholding a prediction under high uncertainty. Although binary classifiers frequently use a default threshold of 0.5, modifying this value enables practitioners to shift the operating point of a model, effectively balancing trade-offs between false positives and false negatives to accommodate asymmetric misclassification costs, specific risk tolerances, or operational constraints.

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Optimal Strategies for Reject Option Classifiers

Optimal Strategies for Reject Option Classifiers

Vojtech Franc, Daniel Prusa, Václav Vorácek

OrganizationsCzech Technical University in Prague

Why you should read this

Unifies cost-based, bounded-improvement, and bounded-abstention selective classification models by proving they share the same optimal strategy, while developing two Fisher consistent algorithms to learn optimal rejection functions for arbitrary black-box classifiers across diverse prediction tasks.

In classification with a reject option, the classifier is allowed in uncertain cases to abstain from prediction. The classical cost-based model of a reject option classifier requires the rejection cost to be defined explicitly. The alternative bounded-improvement model and the bounded-abstention model avoid the notion of the reject cost. The bounded-improvement model seeks a classifier with a guaranteed selective risk and maximal cover. The bounded-abstention model seeks a classifier with guaranteed cover and minimal selective risk. We prove that despite their different formulations the three rejection models lead to the same prediction strategy: the Bayes classifier endowed with a randomized Bayes selection function. We define the notion of a proper uncertainty score as a scalar summary of the prediction uncertainty sufficient to construct the randomized Bayes selection function. We propose two algorithms to learn the proper uncertainty score from examples for an arbitrary black-box classifier. We prove that both algorithms provide Fisher consistent estimates of the proper uncertainty score and demonstrate their efficiency in different prediction problems, including classification, ordinal regression, and structured output classification.

Added

2026-09-26