dempster-shafer theory (dempster-shafer)

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network’s outputs as evidence to parameterize the Dirichlet distribution, and achieve impressive performance in uncertainty estimation. However, for high data uncertainty samples but annotated with the one-hot label, the evidence-learning process for those mislabeled classes is over-penalized and remains hindered. To address this problem, we propose a novel method, Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning (I-EDL). In particular, we introduce Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to measure the informativeness of evidence carried by each sample, according to which we can dynamically reweight the objective loss terms to make the network more focus on the representation learning of uncertain classes. The generalization ability of our network is further improved by optimizing the PAC-Bayesian bound. As demonstrated empirically, our proposed method consistently outperforms traditional EDL-related algorithms in multiple uncertainty estimation tasks, especially in the more challenging few-shot classification settings.

With rapid development in hardware (sensors and processors) and AI algorithms, automated driving techniques have entered the public's daily life and achieved great success in supporting human driving performance. However, due to the high contextual variations and temporal dynamics in pedestrian behaviors, the interaction between autonomous-driving cars and pedestrians remains challenging, impeding the development of fully autonomous driving systems. This paper focuses on predicting pedestrian intention with a novel transformer-based evidential prediction (TrEP) algorithm. We develop a transformer module towards the temporal correlations among the input features within pedestrian video sequences and a deep evidential learning model to capture the AI uncertainty under scene complexities. Experimental results on three popular pedestrian intent benchmarks have verified the effectiveness of our proposed model over the state-of-the-art. The algorithm performance can be further boosted by controlling the uncertainty level. We systematically compare human disagreements with AI uncertainty to further evaluate AI performance in confusing scenes. The code is released at https://github.com/zzmonlyyou/TrEP.git.